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Dr. Andrew Scobell

(formerly)Research Professor of National Security Affairs
Area(s) of Expertise: Asian political and military affairs, especially China and Korea; democratization; comparative communism and post-communism; civil-military relations; strategic culture.

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Photo Dr. Andrew Scobell is Senior Political Scientist at RAND’s Washington, DC, office. Prior to this, he was an Associate Professor of International Affairs at the George H. W. Bush School of Government and Public Service and Director of the China Certificate Program at Texas A&M University located in College Station, TX. From 1999 until 2007, he was an Associate Research Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College and an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at Dickinson College, both located in Carlisle, PA. Dr. Scobell is the author of China’s Use of Military Force: Beyond the Great Wall and the Long March (Cambridge University Press, 2003), he co-authored China’s Search for Security with Andrew J. Nathan, (Columbia University Press, forthcoming, 2012), he has written more than a dozen monographs and reports, as well as several dozen journal articles and book chapters. He has also edited or co-edited 12 volumes on various aspects of security in the Asia-Pacific region. He is a co-editor with Mr. Kamphausen and Dr. Lai of The PLA at Home and Abroad: Assessing the Operational Capabilities of China’s Military (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, June 2010). Dr. Scobell holds a Ph.D. in political science from Columbia University.

*The above information may not be current. It was current at the time when the individual worked for SSI or was published by SSI.

SSI books and monographs by Dr. Andrew Scobell

  • Chinese Lessons from Other Peoples' Wars

    November 17, 2011

    Edited by Dr. Andrew Scobell, Dr. David Lai, Mr. Roy Kamphausen.
    The 2010 People's Liberation Army (PLA) conference focused on the lessons learned by the PLA from the military actions and experiences of non-Chinese armed forces over the past 30 years, which the PLA can apply to its own strategic planning.

  • The PLA at Home and Abroad: Assessing the Operational Capabilities of China's Military

    July 06, 2010

    Edited by Mr. Roy Kamphausen, Dr. David Lai, Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    In 2009, the People's Republic of China, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, and the PLA Air Force celebrated their 60th anniversaries. Behind China’s economic development, the PLA parades, and the spectacular celebration fireworks, the world clearly saw an ambitious China edging its way to the center stage of international economic, political, and military affairs. However, a few other major events in the last 2 years came just in time to remind the Chinese leaders, and the world as well, that China still faced a challenging future.

  • Beyond the Strait: PLA Missions other than Taiwan

    April 30, 2009

    Edited by Mr. Roy Kamphausen, Dr. David Lai, Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    On September 26, 2008, over 70 leading experts from academia, government, the military and policy thinktanks assembled at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, to look beyond the Chinese People's Liberation Army's (PLA) primary focus on Taiwan and to the evolving new roles of the PLA. The conference could not have been timelier, given the PLA’s active involvement in events during 2008, including earthquake relief, counterterrorism, humanitarian assistance, space activities, and blue water naval operations.

  • The "People" in the PLA: Recruitment, Training, and Education in China's Military

    September 17, 2008

    Edited by Mr. Roy Kamphausen, Dr. Andrew Scobell, Mr. Travis Tanner.
    On September 28, 2007, under the joint leadership of the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute and NBR’s Pyle Center for Northeast Asian Studies, approximately 70 leading experts on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) convened at Carlisle Barracks, PA, for a 2-day discussion on the Chinese military’s human infrastructure. Presentations and discussions focused on identifying trends in PLA recruitment, education, training, personnel management, and demographics.

  • Projecting Pyongyang: The Future of North Korea's Kim Jong Il Regime

    March 24, 2008

    Authored by Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    The author explores the future of the regime of Kim Jong Il, constructs a number of scenarios, and then identifies the most plausible one.

  • Right Sizing the People's Liberation Army: Exploring the Contours of China's Military

    September 04, 2007

    Edited by Dr. Andrew Scobell, Mr. Roy Kamphausen.
    This volume addresses how the leadership of China and the PLA view what size of PLA best meets China’s requirements. Among other things, this analytical process makes important new contributions on the question of PLA transparency, long an issue among PLA watchers.

  • North Korea's Military Threat: Pyongyang's Conventional Forces, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and Ballistic Missiles

    April 27, 2007

    Authored by Dr. Andrew Scobell, Captain USN John M Sanford.
    Although North Korea remains an economic basket case that cannot feed and clothe its own people, it nevertheless possesses one of the world’s largest armed forces. Whether measured in terms of the total number of personnel in uniform, numbers of special operations soldiers, the size of its submarine fleet, quantity of ballistic missiles in its arsenal, or its substantial Weapons of Mass Destruction programs, Pyongyang is a major military power. North Korea’s latest act to demonstrate its might was the nuclear test on October 9, 2006.

  • Shaping China's Security Environment: The Role of the People's Liberation Army

    October 18, 2006

    Edited by Dr. Andrew Scobell, Dr. Larry M. Wortzel.
    This volume addresses the role of the Chinese military in shaping its country’s security environment.

  • Kim Jong Il and North Korea: The Leader and the System

    March 01, 2006

    Authored by Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    North Korea is both a paradox and an enigma because on one hand, it appears to be a very powerful state—possessing the world's fourth largest armed forces, a sizeable arsenal of ballistic missiles, and a worrying nuclear program—but on the other, it is an economic basket case in terms of agricultural output, industrial production, and foreign trade exports.

  • Chinese National Security: Decisionmaking Under Stress

    October 01, 2005

    Edited by Dr. Andrew Scobell, Dr. Larry M. Wortzel.
    If there is one constant in expert analyses of the history of modern China, it is the characterization of a country perpetually in the throes of crises. While China at the mid-point of the Twenty-first Century's first decade is arguably the most secure and stable it has been in more than a century, crises continue to emerge with apparent frequency. Consequently, the study of China's behavior in conditions of tension and stress is of considerable importance to policy makers and analysts around the world.

  • North Korea's Strategic Intentions

    July 01, 2005

    Authored by Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    North Korea poses a key challenge to the global community of states. Sometimes viewed as primarily a nuclear or proliferation challenge, Pyongyang actually presents the United States and other countries with multiple problems. As the 2005 National Defense Strategy of the United States notes, these challenges include "traditional, irregular, and catastrophic." While each dimension of these threat capabilities are fairly clear and, with the exception of the third, readily documented, North Korea's intentions are a much more controversial subject upon which specialists reach widely disparate conclusions.

  • Civil-Military Change in China: Elites, Institutes, and Ideas After the 16th Party Congress

    September 01, 2004

    Edited by Dr. Andrew Scobell, Dr. Larry M. Wortzel.
    In November 2002, the Chinese Communist Party held its 16th Congress and formally initiated a sweeping turnover of senior leaders in both the Party and the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The meeting heralded not merely a new set of personalities in positions of political and military power, but also the emergence of a new generation of leaders. Who are these individuals, and what does their rise mean for the future of China and its military?

  • China and North Korea: From Comrades-In-Arms to Allies at Arm's Length

    March 01, 2004

    Authored by Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    Since the ongoing nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, which emerged in October 2002, the United States and other countries have pinned high hopes on Chinese efforts to moderate and reason with North Korea. Yet, as the author points out, it would be unrealistic to raise one's expectations over what China might accomplish vis-à-vis North Korea.

  • The Lessons of History: The Chinese people's Liberation Army at 75

    July 01, 2003

    Edited by Ms. Laurie Burkitt, Dr. Andrew Scobell, Dr. Larry M. Wortzel.
    With the armed forces of the People's Republic of China (PLA) celebrating its 75th anniversary on August 1, 2002, it only seemed appropriate and timely to take stock of the world's largest military. The PLA has officially been in existence for three-quarters of a century, and its history is one filled with turmoil and warfare.

  • Recalibrating the U.S.-Republic of Korea Alliance

    May 01, 2003

    Edited by Donald W. Boose, Jr., Balbina Y. Hwang, Patrick Morgan, USMC, Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    On October 18-20, 2001, the 16th Annual Conference of the Council on U.S.-Korean Security Studies was held in Washington, DC. U.S. commitments had not been shifted or weakened; the U.S. ability to militarily uphold its commitments had not been affected; and the solidarity of the ROK-U.S. alliance again had been demonstrated through South Korea's strong support for the war on terrorism.

  • Strategic Effects of Conflict with Iraq: Australia and New Zealand

    March 01, 2003

    Authored by Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    The author has been asked to analyze four issues: the position that key states in their region are taking on U.S. military action against Iraq; the role of America in the region after the war with Iraq; the nature of security partnerships in the region after the war with Iraq; and the effect that war with Iraq will have on the war on terrorism in the region.

  • China's Growing Military Power: Perspectives on Security, Ballistic Missiles, and Conventional Capabilities

    September 01, 2002

    Edited by Dr. Andrew Scobell, Dr. Larry M. Wortzel.
    The nine chapters in this volume, all written by leading experts, cover a diverse set of important topics: East Asian perspectives on China's security ambitions, the status of the Chinese ballistic missile program and regional reactions to U.S. missile defense initiatives, and China's ever-improving conventional military capabilities.

  • China and Strategic Culture

    May 01, 2002

    Authored by Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    The author examines the impact of strategic culture on 21st century China. He contends that the People's Republic of China's security policies and its tendency to use military force are influenced by their understandings of the strategic cultures of other states. Gaining a fuller appreciation for how Chinese strategists view the U.S. and Japan will better enable us to assess regional and global security issues.

  • The Costs of Conflict: The Impact on China of a Future War

    October 01, 2001

    Edited by Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    Will economic development enhance China s comprehensive national power and thus contribute to some of China s more unhealthy goals, such as dominating the South China Seas, seizing Taiwan by force, or grabbing the Senkaku Islands from Japan? Is the China-Taiwan economic dynamic strong enough to offset military adventurism?

  • U.S. Army and the Asia-Pacific

    April 01, 2001

    Authored by Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    The author highlights the significant and ongoing contribution of the U.S. Army in deterring war, executing smaller-scale contingencies, and shaping the security environment. He advocates a robust, pro- active Army presence for the foreseeable future. Such a presence will ensure the promotion and protection of U.S. national interests in the region.

  • The Asia-Pacific in the U.S. National Security Calculus for a New Millennium

    December 01, 2000

    Authored by Dr. Andrew Scobell, Dr. Larry M. Wortzel.
    The authors of this monograph survey the challenges to U.S. national security that confront this diverse and dynamic region, highlighting the particularly volatile situation that continues on the Korean peninsula.

  • Chinese Army Building in the Era of Jiang Zemin

    July 01, 2000

    Authored by Dr. Andrew Scobell.
    What are the national security and national military goals of China s leaders? What strategies are Chinese leaders considering in pursuit of these goals? What is the likelihood that these goals will be attained?

SSI articles, editorial, and briefs by Dr. Andrew Scobell