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ENRIQUE A. BALOYRA is a Professor of Political Science and former Dean of the Graduate School at the University of Miami. He has published widely on Central America and the Caribbean Basin. His best known book is El Salvador in Transition and his most recent is an edited volume which he organized with James A. Morris, Conflict and Change in Cuba (1993).
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Authored by Prof. Enrique A. Baloyra.
In this report, the distinguished Latin American scholar Enrique Baloyra argues that Castro's current policy of "re-equilibration" is unlikely to succeed and that his options will increasingly boil down to two choices: One, he can deepen the process of government-led reform, or, two, he can continue the current policy, with growing chances of violence and turmoil. Baloyra suggests that since the former might jeopardize his hegemonic position, the latter is the more probable option. The future, in short, is likely to be grim.