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Dr. W. Andrew Terrill

Research Professor of National Security Affairs
Phone: (717) 245-4056
Email Dr. W. Andrew Terrill

Photo Dr. W. Andrew Terrill joined the Strategic Studies Institute in October 2001, and is SSI's Middle East specialist. Prior to his appointment, he served as a Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). In 1998-99, Dr. Terrill also served as a Visiting Professor at the U.S. Air War College on assignment from LLNL. He is a former faculty member at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, and has taught adjunct at a variety of other colleges and universities. He is a retired U.S. Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer (Middle East). Dr. Terrill has published in numerous academic journals on topics including nuclear proliferation, the Iran-Iraq War, Operation DESERT STORM, Middle Eastern chemical weapons and ballistic missile proliferation, terrorism, and commando operations. He is also the author of Global Security Watch--Jordan (Praeger 2010). Since 1994, at U.S. State Department invitation, Dr. Terrill has participated in the Middle Eastern Track 2 talks, which are part of the Middle East Peace Process. He has also served as a member of the military and security working group of the Baker/Hamilton Iraq Study Group throughout its existence in 2006. Dr. Terrill holds a B.A. from California State Polytechnic University and an M.A. from the University of California, Riverside, both in Political Science. He also holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from Claremont Graduate University, Claremont, California.

SSI books and monographs by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill

  • Lessons of the Iraqi De-Ba'athification Program for Iraq's Future and the Arab Revolutions

    May 01, 2012

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    This monograph considers both the future of Iraq and the differences and similarities between events in Iraq and the Arab Spring states. Serious and expanding mistakes by new governments are possible in the aftermath of the Arab Spring revolutions, and any lessons that can be gleaned from earlier conflicts will be of considerable value to those nations. Moreover, U.S. Army officers and senior noncommissioned officers (NCOs) may often have unique opportunities and unique credibility to offer advice on the lessons of Iraq to their counterparts in some of the Arab Spring nations.

  • The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security

    December 08, 2011

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    Saudi Arabia and Iran have often behaved as serious rivals for influence in the Middle East and especially the Gulf area since at least Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. While both nations define themselves as Islamic, the differences between their foreign policies could hardly be more dramatic. Recently, the rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran has intensified and been reflected in their policies involving a number of regional states including Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, and others.

  • The Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security

    January 27, 2011

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    Yemen is not currently a failed state, but it is experiencing huge political and economic problems that can have a direct impact on U.S. interests in the region. More recently, Yemen has also emerged as one of the most important theaters for the struggle against al-Qaeda. Under these circumstances, advancing U.S. interests by helping the Yemenis is a major foreign policy challenge that must be addressed by U.S. strategic leaders.

  • Escalation and Intrawar Deterrence During Limited Wars in the Middle East

    September 16, 2009

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    This monograph seeks to analyze military escalation and intrawar deterrence by examining two key wars where these concepts became especially relevant—the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the 1991 Gulf War against Iraq. A central conclusion of this monograph is that intrawar deterrence is an inherently fragile concept, and that the nonuse of weapons of mass destruction in both wars was the result of a number of positive factors that may not be repeated in future conflicts.

  • Regional Spillover Effects of the Iraq War

    January 06, 2009

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    Regional spillover problems associated with the Iraq war need to be considered and addressed even in the event of strong future success in building the new Iraq. In less optimistic scenarios, these issues will become even more important.

  • Jordanian National Security and the Future of Middle East Stability

    December 28, 2007

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    The United States and Jordan have maintained a valuable mutually-supportive relationship for decades as a result of shared interests in a moderate, prosperous, and stable Middle East. In this monograph, the author highlights Jordan’s ongoing value as a U.S. ally and considers ways that the U.S.-Jordanian alliance might be used to contain and minimize problems of concern to both countries.

  • Kuwaiti National Security and the U.S.-Kuwaiti Strategic Relationship after Saddam

    September 14, 2007

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    The author examines the national security concerns that Kuwait must address in the turbulent post-Saddam era. Challenges involving Iraq, Iran, and terrorism are severe and will require both Kuwaitis and Americans to rethink and revise previous security approaches to meet important shared goals.

  • Regional Fears of Western Primacy and the Future of U.S. Middle Eastern Basing Policy

    December 15, 2006

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    The United States has a core national interest in maintaining peace and stability in the Middle East as well as containing or eliminating threats emanating from that region. Yet, there is often disagreement on the ways to best achieve these goals.

  • Precedents, Variables, and Options in Planning a U.S. Military Disengagement Strategy from Iraq

    October 01, 2005

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill, Dr. Conrad C. Crane.
    The questions of how to empower the Iraqis most effectively and then progressively withdraw non-Iraqi forces from that country is one of the most important policy problems currently facing the United States. The authors seek to present the U.S. situation in Iraq in all of its complexity and ambiguity, with policy recommendations for how that withdrawal strategy might be most effectively implemented.

  • Strategic Implications of Intercommunal Warfare in Iraq

    February 01, 2005

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    This study considers the regional consequences of intercommunal warfare in Iraq by examining how such an eventuality may develop and how neighboring states might become involved in such a conflict. This work does not predict an Iraqi civil war but rather views it as a worst-case eventuality. The danger of an Iraqi civil war requires serious U.S. cooperation with those regional states that also have a stake in preventing this outcome.

  • Iraq and Vietnam: Differences, Similarities, and Insights

    May 01, 2004

    Authored by Dr. Jeffrey Record, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    The authors conclude that the two conflicts bear little comparison. They also conclude, however, that failed U.S. state-building in Vietnam and the impact of declining domestic political support for U.S. war aims in Vietnam are issues pertinent to current U.S. policy in Iraq.

  • The United States and Iraq's Shi'ite Clergy: Partners or Adversaries?

    February 01, 2004

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    The author addressed the critical need to gain the cooperation or at least the passive tolerance of the Shi'ite clerics and community. Such an effort could become more challenging as time goes on, and one of the recurring themes of this monograph is the declining patience of the Shi'ite clergy with the U.S. presence. Some key Shi'ite clerics are deeply suspicious of the United States, exemplified by conspiracy theories.

  • Nationalism, Sectarianism, and the Future of the U.S. Presence in Post-Saddam Iraq

    July 01, 2003

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    The author addresses the critical questions involved in understanding the background of Iraqi national identity and the ways in which it may evolve in the future to either the favor or detriment of the United States. He pays particular attention to the issue of Iraqi sectarianism and the emerging role of the Shi'ite Muslims, noting the power of an emerging but fractionalized clergy.

  • Strategic Effects of Conflict with Iraq: The Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey

    March 01, 2003

    Authored by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    War with Iraq signals the beginning of a new era in American national security policy and alters strategic balances and relationships around the world. The specific effects of the war, though, will vary from region to region. A U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq will place popular pressure on a number of moderate Arab states to reduce high profile military cooperation with the United States. Following a war, Saudi Arabia will probably seek to reduce substantially or eliminate the U.S. military presence in the kingdom due to a more limited regional threat and the domestic difficulties with a U.S. presence.

  • Reconstructing Iraq: Insights, Challenges, and Missions for Military Forces in a Post-Conflict Scenario

    February 01, 2003

    Authored by Dr. Conrad C. Crane, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill.
    In October 2002, the U.S. Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute, in coordination with the Office of the Army Deputy Chief of Staff/G-3, initiated a study to analyze how American and coalition forces can best address the requirements that will necessarily follow operational victory in a war with Iraq. The objectives of the project were to determine and analyze probable missions.

SSI articles, editorial, and briefs by Dr. W. Andrew Terrill

 

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