Strategic Studies Institute
United States Army War College

Projecting Pyongyang: The Future of North Korea's Kim Jong Il Regime

Authored by Dr. Andrew Scobell.

Brief Synopsis

The author seeks to assist planners and decisionmakers in thinking about and preparing for possible future contingencies concerning North Korea. He does not dwell on war or conflict scenarios involving North Korea because military planners have already focused considerable effort and attention on these. It is entirely possible that the fate of the country as a political, territorial, and juridical entity is intimately bound up with the fate of the Kim Jong Il regime, but one should not assume this to be so. In other words, the collapse of the Kim regime may not lead to the collapse of North Korea as a state. Moreover, one should not assume that even if the regime collapse is followed by state collapse that these events would inexorably lead to Korean unification.

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View other pubs in the following categories:

Asia Pacific
Homeland Security and Defense
Missile Defense
Nonproliferation
South and North Korea
Weapons of Mass Destruction