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Future Forces and Changes Studies

Added June 19, 2014
Type: Monograph
Operational Reservations: Considerations for a Total Army Force. Authored by COL John D. Ellis, COL (Ret.) Laura McKnight Mackenzie.
View the Executive Summary

Despite fighting shoulder-to-shoulder this past decade, the U.S. Army is comprised of essentially “three Armies”—the active component, the Army Reserve, and the National Guard. While an intriguing start to integrate the three components, the Army Total Force Policy is not a panacea for reform. Real and meaningful work still needs to be done to bring the three into effective alignment and in a way to foster cooperation and mutual respect.
Added October 12, 2012
Type: Letort Papers
A "Hollow Army" Reappraised: President Carter, Defense Budgets, and the Politics of Military Readiness. Authored by Professor Frank L. Jones.
For more than 30 years, the term “hollow army” has represented President Carter’s alleged willingness to allow American military capability to deteriorate in the face of growing Soviet capability. The true story is more complicated than the metaphor suggests.
Added October 09, 2012
Type: Monograph
The Future of American Landpower: Does Forward Presence Still Matter? The Case of the Army in Europe. Authored by Dr. John R. Deni.
View the Executive Summary

The January 2012 announcement that the United States would reduce the number of Brigade Combat Teams in Europe captured media, popular, and scholarly attention, prompting many to ask: Is the United States turning its back on Europe as it pivots to Asia? Do the Europeans have the wherewithal to defend themselves? Are forward-based U.S. land forces necessary at all? Given the necessity of capable, interoperable coalition partners for the future security threats Washington most expects to encounter, the role of America’s forward military presence in Europe remains as vital as it was at the dawn of the Cold War, but for different reasons. Dr. Deni’s monograph forms a critical datapoint in the ongoing dialogue regarding the future of American Landpower.
Added December 16, 2011
Type: Letort Papers
Real Leadership and the U.S. Army: Overcoming a Failure of Imagination to Conduct Adaptive Work. Authored by Colonel John B. Richardson, IV.
This is a case study of a cavalry squadron struggling with operational adaptability. Through this struggle, the study provides a means for analyzing the complexity of organizational leadership in the contemporary security environment. The case study provides an example where hard fought lessons learned resulted in a more holistic approach to leadership, because the leader transcended that of simply being an authority figure, and instead, become a real leader who provided a safe and creative learning environment where the organization was able to tackle and solve complex problems.
Added October 09, 2007
Type: Student (Carlisle) Papers
A Concept at the Crossroads: Rethinking the Center of Gravity. Authored by Lieutenant Colonel Rudolph M. Janiczek.
The author concludes that, in an effort to operationalize Clausewitz's signature concept, the U.S. military probably limited its utility. The Center of Gravity is best applied as an abstract, rather than as a practical, concept.
Added May 07, 2007
Type: Op-Ed
Manning the Force. Authored by Dr. Douglas V. Johnson, II.
Each month a member of the SSI faculty writes an editorial for our monthly newsletter. This is the Op-Ed for the May 2007 newsletter.
Added November 21, 2006
Type: Monograph
Defense Transformation: To What, For What? Authored by Colonel Kevin Reynolds.
Beyond enhancing the lethality of U.S. forces on the conventional battlefield, where is defense transformation headed?
Added August 18, 2006
Type: Student (Carlisle) Papers
How to Make Army Force Generation Work for the Army's Reserve Components. Authored by Lieutenant Colonel Joseph E Whitlock.
This paper describes ARFORGEN, discusses some of its critical assumptions related to reserve component (RC) units, and explains what changes are required at the Department of Defense (DoD), Department of the Army (DA), and the individual RC levels so that the Army can integrate its RC units fully into ARFORGEN. The paper details needed changes at both the institutional and operational level at DA and DoD.
Added August 01, 2005
Type: Student (Carlisle) Papers
Reshaping the Expeditionary Army to Win Decisively: The Case for Greater Stabilization capacity in the Modular Force. Authored by Colonel Bryan G Watson.
The author makes the case that U.S. strategy demands the U.S. Armed Forces build a force with greater capacity for conducting stabilization operations concurrent with combat operation. He traces the strategic roots of the stabilization requirement, develops a warfighting concept for "progressive stabilization," and makes judgments on whether the Army's current Modular Force effort will generate the right type of force. He concludes by making some recommendations on where the Army should adjust its current modernization effort to make the force more relevant.
Added February 01, 2004
Type: Monograph
Reconfiguring the American Military Presence in Europe. Authored by LTC Raymond A. Millen.
America has three basic options regarding the basing of ground troops in Europe--complete withdrawal, annual rotations, and restructuring the Alliance to accommodate a smaller U.S. presence. Restructuring NATO to nine integrated multinational divisions permits greater burden sharing and an expeditionary capability.
Added March 01, 2003
Type: Monograph
Future War/Future Battlespace: The Strategic Role of American Landpower. Authored by Dr. Steven Metz, LTC Raymond A. Millen.
The trends in the strategic environment in the development of the Future War/Future Battlespace suggest that traditional warfighting has changed in the post 9-11 era. The strategic environment can be classified into four strategic battlespaces, within which future adversaries will operate to thwart U.S. strategic initiatives.
Added November 01, 2002
Type: Monograph
Afghanistan and the Future of Warfare: Implications for Army and Defense Policy. Authored by Dr. Stephen D. Biddle.
America's novel use of special forces, precision weapons, and indigenous allies has attracted widespread attention since its debut in Northern Afghanistan. Many think it caused the Taliban's sudden collapse. For them, this "Afghan Model" represents warfare's future, and should become the new template for US defense planning. Critics, however, see Afghanistan as an anomaly.
Added May 01, 2002
Type: Monograph
Facing the Hydra: Maintaining Strategic Balance while Pursuing a Global War against Terrorism. Authored by Dr. Conrad C. Crane.
The author analyzes the impact of the war on terrorism and the requirements of the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review on the many essential missions conducted by the U.S. Armed Forces. Focusing primarily on the Army, he highlights the requirements associated with combat operations against terrorists, accelerating transformation and the new emphasis on homeland security and force protection.
Added October 01, 2001
Type: Book
The Costs of Conflict: The Impact on China of a Future War. Edited by Dr. Andrew Scobell.
Will economic development enhance China s comprehensive national power and thus contribute to some of China s more unhealthy goals, such as dominating the South China Seas, seizing Taiwan by force, or grabbing the Senkaku Islands from Japan? Is the China-Taiwan economic dynamic strong enough to offset military adventurism?
Added October 01, 2001
Type: Book
AC/RC Integration: Today's Success and Transformation's Challenge. Authored by Dr. Dallas D. Owens.
Lieutenant Colonel Dallas Owens analyzes current integration programs and initiatives and evaluates them for their potential to resist transformation's possible threat to AC/RC integration. He provides conclusions about the current and future state of AC/RC integration and offers recommendations to overcome transformation s challenges to integration.
Added August 01, 2001
Type: Book
W(h)ither Corps? Authored by Dr. D. Robert Worley.
Army transformation has many dimensions with change in technology, operational methods, and organizations. So far, the focus of organizational transformation has been on the redesign of tactical units such as the interim brigade combat teams. But corps--the Army's operational level organizations--must also be transformed.
Added June 01, 2001
Type: Book
Future Warfare Anthology, Revised Edition. Authored by Major General Robert H. Scales.
Throughout U.S. history the American military services have had an unfortunate penchant for not being ready be the next war. American military institutions have been surprisingly optimistic in weighting their preparedness as they embarked on the nation's wars. Military institutions have always had considerable problems in adapting and innovating during inter-war periods.
Added April 01, 2001
Type: Book
Revising the Two MTW Force Shaping Paradigm. Authored by Dr. Steven Metz.
One of the most important elements of U.S. military strategy for the past 10 years has been the belief that a force able to fight two nearly simultaneous major theater wars of the DESERT STORM type would be capable of dealing with the full gamut of security challenges that the United States is likely to face.
Added June 01, 2000
Type: Monograph
Multinational Land Forces and the NATO Force Structure Review. Authored by Dr. Thomas-Durell Young.
While there are arguably sufficient reaction forces to support NATO Ministerial Guidance, there are numerous weaknesses that would, and have, inhibited the efficient and effective deployment of land forces in crises. There are insufficient deployable reaction headquarters, both at the corps and component command level that would support a commander of a NATO Combined Joint Task Force.
Added December 01, 1998
Type: Book
America's Army: Preparing for Tomorrow's Security Challenges. Authored by Major General Robert H. Scales.
During the early decades of the 21st Century, the Army of 2025 will differ from today's Army in two distinct ways. First, it will achieve unprecedented strategic and operational speed by exploiting information technologies to create a knowledge-based organization. Second, it will exhibit tremendous flexibility and physical agility through streamlined, seamlessly integrated organizations that use new tactics and procedures.
Added May 01, 1998
Type: Book
The Case for Army XXI. Authored by Mr. John Gordon, IV, Mr. Peter A. Wilson.
The authors believe there is a mix of extant and near-term combat systems and technologies that will allow the Army to create a number of "aero-motorized" divisions within likely budgetary constraints by the end of the next decade. These medium-weight combat units would exploit the large investment the Air Force is making to modernize its strategic and theater airlift fleets during the first decade.
Added May 01, 1998
Type: Book
The Creeping Irrelevance of U.S. Force Planning. Authored by Dr. Jeffrey Record.
Jeffrey Record examines what he believes is a half-century-old and continuing recession of large-interstate warfare and, since the World War's demise, the unexpected and often violent disintegration of established states. The author's critical analysis leads him to propose significant and controversial changes in planning standards, force structure, and defense spending.
Added April 01, 1998
Type: Book
AY 97 Compendium Army After Next Project. Authored by Dr. Douglas V. Johnson, II.
These student papers are largely focused on present problems which must be solved before movement toward the future can make much progress. If they are not dramatically futuristic in approach, they are nevertheless set against a future backdrop which is still in the process of being defined.
Added March 01, 1998
Type: Book
Five-Dimensional (Cyber) Warfighting: Can the Army After Next be Defeated Through Complex Concepts and Technologies? Authored by Dr. Robert J. Bunker.
The theme for the U.S. Army War College's Ninth Annual Strategy Conference (April 1998) is "Challenging the United States Symmetrically and Asymmetrically: Can America Be Defeated?" Dr. Robert J. Bunker of California State University, San Bernardino, answers the question with an emphatic "yes."
Added February 01, 1998
Type: Monograph
Force Planning Considerations for Army XXI. Authored by Dr. William T. Johnsen.
Promoting U.S. national interests through shaping the international security environment also will become a major role for the U.S. military. To fulfill its multiple roles, the Army's force structure and design must provide the capabilities necessary to operate across a broad spectrum of conflict in peacetime, crisis, and war.
Added September 01, 1997
Type: Book
Force Planning in an Era of Uncertainty: Two MRCs as a Force Sizing Framework. Authored by Professor John F. Troxell.
The two MRC framework constitutes a logical scheme for organizing U.S. defense planning efforts. New approaches to planning scenarios and the operational concept for employing forces offer the potential for such adjustments concerning the "ways" of the strategic paradigm, while force thinning and modernization are two important categories for adjusting the affordability of the strategic "means."
Added April 01, 1997
Type: Book
The Future Roles of U.S. Military Power and Their Implications. Authored by Dr. William T. Johnsen.
Only after the future roles of the U.S. military have been determined can the Department of Defense turn to the other important issues posed by Congress. Dr. William T. Johnsen concludes that the U.S. military will continue to perform its traditional roles: deterrence, reassurance, compellence, and support to the nation. The method and manner of carrying out those roles, however, will change.
Added March 01, 1997
Type: Book
Strategic Horizons: The Military Implications of Alternative Futures. Authored by Dr. Steven Metz.
A year ago the Chief of Staff of the Army initiated the Army After Next Project (AANP) as a means of stimulating constructive thinking about the Army's future throughout the service. AANP has quickly developed into a primary vehicle for long-range planning.
Added March 01, 1996
Type: Book
The Future of American Landpower: Strategic Challenges for the 21st Century Army. Authored by Dr. William T. Johnsen, Dr. Douglas V. Johnson, II, Professor Douglas C. Lovelace, Jr., Dr. Steven Metz, LTC James Kievit.
Armies historically have been criticized for preparing for the last war. Since the early 1980s, however, the U.S. Army has broken this pattern and created a force capable of winning the next war. But, in an era characterized by a volatile international security environment, accelerating technological advances (particularly in acquiring, processing, and disseminating information), the emergence of what some are calling a "revolution in military affairs," and forecasts of increasingly constrained fiscal resources, it seems ill-advised to plan only for the "next Army."
Added February 01, 1995
Type: Monograph
Counterinsurgency: Strategy and the Phoenix of American Capability. Authored by Dr. Steven Metz.
Dr. Steven Metz argues that the way the Department of Defense and U.S. military spend the time when counterinsurgency support is not an important part of American national security strategy determines how quickly and easily they react when policymakers commit the nation to such activity. If analysis and debate continues, at least at a low level, the military is better prepared for the reconstitution of capabilities. If it ignores global developments in insurgency and counterinsurgency, the reconstitution of capabilities would be more difficult.
Added February 01, 1993
Type: Book
Strategy, Forces and Budgets: Dominant Influences in Executive Decision Making, Post-Cold War, 1989-91. Authored by Dr. Don M. Snider.
The monograph illuminates the critical series of events that resulted in the development of the National Military Strategy of the United States and the "base force."
Added January 01, 1993
Type: Book
Alternative World Scenarios for a New Order of Nations. Authored by Dr. Charles W. Taylor.
The author provides a set of plausible scenarios against which users can build policies and decisions while anticipating and judging their consequences before implementation.