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Era of Persistent Conflict Studies

Added November 18, 2014
Type: Monograph
Tribal Militias: An Effective Tool to Counter Al-Qaida and Its Affiliates? Authored by Dr. Norman Cigar.
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Since many of the societies in which Al-Qaida, its affiliates, and offshoots operate have a significant tribal component, tribally-based militias may be a critical tool in fighting against Al-Qaida, because such militias can provide a cost-effective mechanism and serve as a force multiplier for U.S. Landpower. However, tribal militias are no panacea, but can be a two-edged sword and, like any weapon, has to be understood and wielded with caution and skill in order to avoid unintended consequences.
Added October 28, 2014
Type: Monograph
Maneuvering the Islamist-Secularist Divide in the Arab World: How the United States Can Preserve its Interests and Values in an Increasingly Polarized Environment. Authored by Gregory Aftandilian.
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This monograph explores the growing Islamist-secularist divide in Arab countries, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia, which has polarized such societies and often led to zero-sum politics. It offers recommendations for U.S. policymakers to maneuver through this divide while preserving U.S. interests and values.
Added October 01, 2014
Type: Monograph
United States-Gulf Cooperation Council Security Coopeeration in a Multipolar World. Authored by Dr. Mohammed El-Katiri.
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Military and security cooperation with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states is of continuing importance for the United States given the region's pivotal location in the Middle East and proximity to Iran. This monograph examines recent developments in the political and economic dynamics in GCC countries and their neighbors, and the potential implications for this cooperation.
Added July 21, 2014
Type: Monograph
Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond. Authored by Dr. Mohammed El-Katiri.
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The rise to power of Islamist political parties in a number of North African states over the past 3 years has caused widespread concern over the future domestic and foreign policy directions of those states. This monograph explores political change in Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco, and concludes that despite political crises in each country, worst case scenarios have not been borne out and there is hope for optimism.
Added June 13, 2014
Type: Letort Papers
Countering Radicalization and Recruitment to Al-Qaeda: Fighting the War of Deeds. Authored by Dr. Paul Kamolnick.
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Fighting the War of Deeds begins by taking deeds seriously—deadly serious—as action, policy, and communication. As communication, deeds furnish the U.S. Government a uniquely potent means for countering al-Qaeda’s terrorist propaganda effectively, and also building longer-term alliances based on mutuality with the Arab and Muslim world.
Added June 11, 2014
Type: Monograph
Cyberterrorism after STUXNET. Authored by Dr. Thomas M. Chen.
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This monograph examines the threat of cyberterrorism before and after STUXNET by addressing questions of motive, means, and opportunity. STUXNET has not changed the near-term likelihood of cyberterrorism, which remains low, but has implications for the cost-benefit weights of future attacks.
Added May 23, 2014
Type: Monograph
Islamism and Security in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Authored by Leslie S. Lebl.
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Bosnia-Herzegovina, once thought to be on the way to joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU), is instead falling behind, mired in political bickering, economic stalemate and governmental dysfunction. In this difficult situation, Islamism poses a significant threat to Bosnia’s fragile domestic stability.
Added May 16, 2014
Type: Monograph
From War to Deterrence? Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Since 2006. Authored by Dr. Jean-Loup Samaan.
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Over the last 7 years, the border between Israel and Lebanon has remained quiet. Against all odds, in a Middle East experiencing tremendous challenges, Israel and Hezbollah did not trigger a new conflict. Here is the paradox of stability between these two foes which is at the origin of this monograph.
Added May 06, 2014
Type: Monograph
The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq. Authored by Dr. Azeem Ibrahim.
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The Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Syria has also seen a civil war between two al-Qaeda inspired factions (Al Nusrah and the Iraq based Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) and indicates there are limits to its ability to cooperate with other anti-Assad factions and gain popular appeal.